When will they announce the president11/12/2022 ![]() “It’s not that on a personal level I want to run. Two-thirds of Republicans, 70 percent of voters who supported his 2020 campaign and a little more than half of white evangelical Christians want Trump to run again. Trump’s potential candidacy has the consistent support of three groups. I think too many people are scared of him.” “I don’t think he can pull the Republican Party together and win the election. WATCH: The political impact of what the FBI found at Mar-a-Lago I don’t think that kind of thing is going to help unite the country,” Holladay said, citing the classified documents recently found in Trump’s home and the former president’s rally on Jan. “He’s done some things that are borderline stupid. Jim Holladay, an independent voter from North Carolina, voted for Trump in 2020 but now says the former president should step aside. According to 2020 exit polling, 41 percent of independents had voted for Trump’s reelection, suggesting a significant cratering of support since. Just 28 percent of independents believe Trump should run again, this poll found, while two-thirds say the former president should sit out the next election. People know how they feel about Trump.“That’s not a great place to launch an election campaign,” he added. But the most stable part of the year has been presidential polling. There are political cliches that “anything can happen” and that “that every day is a year in politics.” However, in 2020, even if one believes in those phrases, there is no indication that any development will fundamentally alter this particular campaign.Īfter all, 2020 has been - news flash! - a crazy year. One problem with declaring the campaign over before voting is over is the unknowable. There is no evidence that a late-breaking October surprise changes anything His last chance will be during the final debate. The folks in that crowd have their minds made up.Įven if Trump believes he has a few tricks up his sleeve, in theory he would have used his best ones by now. So Trump is only left talking to a base so devoted to him that they will forgo public health guidelines for COVID just to be near him. He will likely continue to hold rally after rally, but cable news channels aren’t even carrying his speeches anymore, largely because Trump has lost his shock value. What is likely to happen afterward: Biden will simply go back into his basement bunker where he cannot make any gaffes that might change the trajectory of an election that poll after poll suggests he will win. There is simply nothing else on the calendar that will demand that American voters pay any attention to the race. The final debate is the last chance that either candidate has to do or say anything different. The candidates aren’t changing course after the debate These voters won’t get a second chance to do something different. Democratic candidates Joe Biden and Kamala Harris could both drop out and move to Australia over the weekend or Trump could announce he is quitting during the debate. But in Texas, early voting is so robust it already adds up to half the 2016 vote total.įor those who have already voted, the campaign is, by definition, over. For context, 137 million people voted in the 2016 presidential election. For tens of millions of voters, the election ended days agoīefore the debate even begins, 40 million voters will have already cast ballots, according to a national analysis of early voting by the University of Florida. ![]()
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